CEO's column: The future of trade and business

This week I 've been thinking about the future. Specifically, the future of trade and the future of business in the UK, writes Henrietta Brealey.

On Tuesday I took part in Trade Unlocked, a new national conference on discussing and addressing the challenges of the current trading environment, with a particular focus on UK-EU trade.

And sure, there are challenges a-plenty.

According to the Resolution Foundation Trading Up report, UK exports of manufactured goods remain 17 per cent below pre-Trade & Cooperation Agreement (aka Brexit) levels. Our next worst performing G7 neighbour, France, is better by quite some margin, 7 per cent down over the time period, so it 's pretty clear that there is something uniquely UK about this issue.

Our own research at the Chamber has found that, perhaps unsurprisingly, barriers to trading with the EU have risen sharply among the region 's businesses. Our Quarterly Business Report survey has shown export sales growth across all markets as “tepid ” at best over recent quarters. At Q1 22 per cent of firms reported and increase in their exports, with 21 per cent reporting a decrease.

Plus of course, the headwinds that we see in the papers every day; labour shortages, rising interest rates, cost of doing business, low productivity growth�the list is endless.

But the interesting question is, not just “what are the challenges? ”, we 're increasingly well versed in those, but “so what do we do about it? ”

UK Trade & Business Commission, convened by the organisers of Trade Unlocked - Open for Britain - provides 114 recommendations for building closer trade, research and political links with the EU to reduce trade friction.

The Resolution Foundation proposes an industrial strategy working in harmony with a trade strategy focused on protecting the UK 's manufacturing industry while being innovative and expansive in our approach to services led trade agreements.

Others such as Make UK are calling for an Industrial Strategy, many a clear UK response to the USA 's Inflation Reduction Act or other bold moves to assert the UK 's strengths and place in the world. Linked to this, the likes of Onward are pushing for innovative new policy approaches to drive the Levelling Up agenda - such as giving Combined Authority Mayors more power and offering regional specific tax relief to drive Foreign Direct Investment in lagging areas.

What 's clear to me is that after this period of great change, trauma, crisis and reactivity - more and more, the country and the business community are seeking vision. We want to be inspired - and we also want a clear plan of action to follow the sentiment. Direction, stability, longer term thinking.

With an election looming next year and manifestos under construction this summer, the race is on to influence the agenda. It won 't surprise you to learn that the Chamber are busily working on our contribution on behalf of the business community, with a particular focus on next May 's West Midlands Mayoral election.

Me? As usual, I 'm optimistic. My role at the conference was to talk about trade and levelling up - the regional perspective. Fortunately, talking about business in the region is just about my favourite thing to do.

And through it all, businesses in the region remain upbeat. Our Q1 Quarterly Business Report saw 63 per cent of businesses expect their turnover to increase over the next 12 months, 51 per cent expect their profitability to increase, with 12 per cent and 16 per cent respectively expecting a decrease.

As I recently learned from the University of Birmingham 's Professor Simon Collinson - the West Midlands is consistently one of the most optimistic regions of the UK, whether you 're looking at Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey Data, NatWest PMI or other regional indicators of confidence.

Also over the last week I 've been out discussing the future of the region - Birmingham City Council 's Our Future City: Draft Central Birmingham Framework 2040, Aston University 's bold vision and growth strategy, meeting businesses charting the future through the Midlands round of KPMG 's Tech Innovator in the UK competition. I 've met individual leaders driving their organisation 's forward and seen a packed out stadium at Edgbaston as the Ashes brought an estimated 100,000 in to watch England vs Australia. Birmingham Airport has just announced three new services to the Gulf with Emirates, Qatar and Saudia airlines now flying from Brum.

There 's a real buzz about the region, reignited and fuelled by last year 's Commonwealth Games that 's still building momentum beneath the headlines. At heart, our region is diverse, entrepreneurial and connected. And these fundamentals will continue to serve us well - even more so if we can get the national political vision and direction aligned to provide shelter from the headwinds and fan the flames of growth.

Speaking of fundamentals, there 's plenty of reasons to be cheerful on international trade too. However we may sometimes think the rest of the world might see us during some of our, shall we say, less edifying national moments, Brand Britain, matters.

Our international reputation as home to globally significant universities producing the innovators of the future, remains strong. Made in Britain, is still a leading mark of quality products. Our services sector exports are the envy of the world, second only to the USA, and growing fast.

And the prizes for businesses that crack going global are significant. According to McKinsey, the UK 's exporting companies are more profitable, more innovative and faster growing than non-exporters.

At the Chamber international trade is part of our DNA. We have been championing global trade links for local businesses since 1813. Today, our international team help businesses in expanding their horizons through a range of training, support, services and connections.

We see it time and time again as we welcome delegations of dignitaries and businesses from the USA to Mexico, Germany to Switzerland, Australia and beyond - trading with the UK, and increasingly Birmingham and the West Midlands - matters.

Henrietta Brealey is chief executive of Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce

This column first appeared in the Birmingham Post