Exporters continue to feel impact of Trump tariffs and JLR crisis – Chamber report

The dual impact of President Trump’s tariffs and the JLR cyber-security attack have led to a slowdown in global trade activity among Greater Birmingham businesses, a new report reveals today.

Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce’s latest Quarterly Business Report reveals a challenging Q3 for exporters – particularly in the manufacturing sector where a third of businesses recorded a decline in sales and the share of firms reporting growth fell from 39 per cent to 17 per cent.

And the number of businesses reporting advanced bookings dropped 28 per cent in Q2 to 11 per cent in Q3.

However, service exports grew by 4 per cent in the same period.

Raj Kandola (pictured), acting deputy CEO at Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce, said: “The latest results from the Quarterly Business Report reiterated the uncertain economic terrain that local firms continue to navigate as we approach the end of another eventful year.

“Domestic activity remained broadly similar to the previous quarter whilst export activity continues to slow as the fallout from the Trump tariffs and JLR's cyber security attack continues to dent international sales.”

While the report reveals price pressures levelling out – with 57 per cent of firms anticipating constancy in the price of their goods and services over the coming months – labour costs continue to squeeze local businesses.

Thirty-three per cent said labour costs are their biggest cost pressure – exacerbated by the increase in employer National Insurance Contributions announced in the 2024 Autumn Budget.

Anecdotally, many firms reported that they have been absorbing those additional costs rather than passing them on to the consumer.

Corporate taxation (29 per cent) remains the most concerning external factor to Greater Birmingham businesses, although this has eased by 3 per cent from Q2.

Nevertheless, with the Autumn Budget taking place on Wednesday 26 November, the Chamber is urging the Chancellor to avoid hitting businesses with further taxation. 

Raj Kandola added: “Recruitment challenges remain apparent and whilst price pressures have fallen from the peak witnessed earlier in the year, the fact remains that capex investment has been squeezed and concerns related to inflation and corporate taxation remain prominent - especially with the Autumn Budget on the horizon.

“Despite these challenges, it's reassuring that profitability projections remain firmly anchored in positive territory - a testament to the ongoing resilience displayed by local firms.

“Clearly, if the Government is serious about unlocking growth, then it is essential that we see a clear commitment to not raising further taxes on businesses.

“Within this context, the Chancellor will need to produce a Budget which restores business confidence, encourages investment, drives international trade and tackles longstanding skills gaps if we are to restore momentum and look forward to 2026 with a degree of optimism.”

The GBCC’s Quarterly Business Report, sponsored by Birmingham City University, is the largest economic report of its kind and provides a regular temperature check on the performance of local businesses.

Heike Schuster-James, associate director, business development at Birmingham City University, said: “The results highlight how sustained cost pressures, a slowdown in global trade, and persistent geopolitical tensions are creating an increasingly challenging environment for businesses.

“The West Midlands Combined Authority has launched the Supply Chain Transition Fund to help manufacturers diversify and access new, high-growth markets, with Birmingham City University and other regional institutions acting as key delivery partners to support firms in strengthening supply chain resilience and entering emerging sectors.

“The programme is also expected to create and safeguard thousands of jobs by enabling businesses to transition into advanced, tech-driven manufacturing sectors aligned with the region's Growth Plan and the government's Industrial Strategy.

“Universities also have a wider role to play. With diverse student communities and graduates, they offer businesses cultural insight, international perspectives and language capabilities - all of which are valuable for export growth.

“By tapping into this talent, firms can build the necessary knowledge, skills and confidence to successfully enter and expand in overseas markets.”

A launch event for the Q3 report takes place on Wednesday 5 November at Birmingham City University’s Curzon Building, with a discussion about unlocking growth and driving investment.