Is the UK heading for another lockdown?

During what should be a cheerful and festive time in the lead up to the holidays, concern is mounting across the country that another national lockdown is looming, writes Erin Henwood.

What is the current number of COVID cases?

Cases across the UK have remained worryingly high for a sustained period of time, with over 59,000 positive cases reported in the UK on 14 December and over 377,000 reported in the preceding seven days. These figures have now surpassed the number reported on 6 January 2021 - the day that England 's third lockdown was announced - which saw 57,374 individuals test positive for Covid-19.

Will the UK have another lockdown?

Despite these high numbers, those worried about the possibility of another lockdown might be reassured that current data (as of 15 December 2021) continues to show a relatively low number of hospital admissions, one of the Government 's major indicators of a possible lockdown. During the first week for the UK 's very first national lockdown in March 2020, hospital admissions hit a seven-day average of 1,988.1, compared to a seven-day average of 846.6 across the country for the week preceding 7 December 2021. Between 29 November and 5 December 2021, the number of people entering hospital with Covid-19 in Sandwell and West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust showed no change compared to the previous seven days.

How many COVID hospitalisations were there in the Midlands?

Though these figures will be reassuring to some extent, it is also important to note that nearly one in five hospital admissions last week - 143 out of 799 admissions - were in the Midlands region alone, raising questions about the possible re-introduction of local measures to protect an already overwhelmed NHS.

How many deaths were there relating to COVID?

Deaths also continue to remain relatively low in comparison to the days that all other lockdowns were introduced, despite a significantly higher case rate.

Last week, the average number of deaths across seven days within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 in Birmingham dropped by 82 per cent compared to 6 January 2021, when England 's third national lockdown was announced.

What is the countrywide status?

Hospital admissions are also significantly lower across the UK than they were on the days that all other lockdowns were announced throughout the pandemic, likely due to the effectiveness of the Government 's vaccine campaign, which has so far seen over 1.6 million doses administered in Birmingham and over 122 million given across the UK. However, given the increasing number of infections, it is understandable that concerns are growing about higher levels of hospital admissions and deaths should the new Omicron variant adversely affect older and more vulnerable demographics.

What are the current COVID guidelines?

While the current data is somewhat reassuring, it is crucial to remember how rapidly the landscape of the pandemic can change - as witnessed last week with the Government 's rapid re-introduction of measures to protect the country against the Omicron variant. Measures announced included:

• Mandatory face coverings in most public places
• A re-introduction of work from home guidance
• NHS Covid Pass requirements for certain events and venues.

Given the constantly changing nature of the situation, and as we continue to await more comprehensive data about the Omicron variant, it is essential everyone remains cautious and takes necessary steps to mitigate any further spread of the virus. Businesses also have a part to play in this and should, where possible, allow staff to take time off to get vaccinated and remain stringent on testing.

With Christmas right around the corner, it is important that we all do our bit to protect those around us and keep business moving.

What is the Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce doing to help?

The Chamber is continuing to support businesses across the Greater Birmingham area during this difficult time, from lobbying regional and national stakeholders to ensure the needs of the local business community are being considered, to updating members on changes to Covid-19 guidance in our daily newsletter.

Our Covid-19 Hub is regularly updated with the latest developments in Government guidance and information which businesses may need during the pandemic, such as workplace safety advice. Our Covid-19 Support Grid also outlines the support currently available offer to businesses in Greater Birmingham and details how support can be accessed. Businesses in need of further support or information can contact us via our dedicated Keep Business Moving inbox.

In light of the Plan B measures and the new variant, we will continue to closely monitor Government guidance and inform members of the latest updates and developments. We will continue to monitor the impact the measures have on local businesses and deliver external events for members as usual in line with the latest guidance.

Erin Henwood is a policy advisor at Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce