Middle East conflict cuts national exports by one fifth

New data from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has revealed a 20 per cent drop in export activity to the Middle East as conflicts escalated in March. 

The findings are based on the number of certificates of origin issued by Chambers of Commerce.

These are a key customs document required, including for Arab League countries, for exporting UK goods. They are issued at the start of the export journey and as such they are a reliable proxy for trade flows. 

Total UK certificates of origin issued by Chambers to exporters saw a 10 per cent drop with numbers falling from 39,457 in March 2025 to 35,533 this year.

Certificates for Arab markets fell by 20 per cent, from 15,437 in March 2025 to 12,360 in March 2026.

Certificates for non‑Arab markets declined by just 4 per cent, from 24,751 in March 2025 to 23,785 in March 2026.

According to BCC, a sharp fall in certificates indicates goods are either being delayed, rerouted or not shipped at all. 

The divergence shows this is not a general slowdown in demand, but a region‑specific shock consistent with the escalation of conflict and disruption across key trade corridors. 

Companies classified as Arab League countries for certificates of origin include Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. 

Steven Lynch, director of international trade at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “For months, businesses have been telling us that the world is getting harder to trade in, and the data is now catching up with that reality.

“Routes are less reliable, costs are rising, and geopolitical risk issomething firms are having to manage day‑to‑day. 

“Our documentation data shows a clear and immediate shock to UK trade flows linked directly to disruption across the Middle East.

“The fact that exports tied to Arab markets are falling far faster than elsewhere tells us this is a targeted, region‑specific impact, not a broad‑based downturn. 

“Firms are reporting increased delays, rerouting via longer and more expensive pathways, enduring rising insurance premiums and facing stretched lead times.

“For SMEs in particular, this squeezes cashflow and confidence at a time when exporting is already challenging. 

“There are early signs some trade may be delayed rather than permanently lost, but the operating environment has fundamentally changed. Trade must be treated as national infrastructure, exposed directly to geopolitical events, and resilience is now essential, not optional.” 

Jonathan Crosbie, international documentation manager at Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce, said: “The data reflects what we are seeing on a local level.

“Demand for export paperwork to the middle east experienced a sizeable decline in March and companies have advised us that uncertain market conditions as well as increased shipping prices are both having an effect on their current export requirements.”

Greater Birmingham businesses are being encouraged to have their say on how events in the Middle East are affecting their operations through a survey.

Businesses are also encouraged to speak with Jonathan Crosbie and the international documentation team for clarification and information on certificates of origin.

The BCC has set up a Diplomatic Advisory Hub, in partnership with the Foreign Office to provide UK firms with the latest intel and advice on overseas trade. Thousands of businesses have attended its webinars on the Middle East conflict to support their operations. 

The BCC has also published a new report on global supply chains, which sets out a range of options to protect the UK’s trade flows during times of crisis.