More than 127,600 new homes needed in Birmingham by 2040 - report

Birmingham needs to build more than 127,600 new homes in less than two decades – the highest of any English local authority – to meet the needs of the city’s 2040 population, research by socio-economic experts at Marrons has revealed.

With 76,526 more people aged 16 and over expected to be living in Birmingham by 2040 – including 42,328 people aged 66 and over, 20,045 first-time buyers (25-44-year-olds), and 6,506 of student age (18-22) – the analysis highlights the pressing need to accommodate the city’s demographic growth.

It is estimated that Birmingham will need an additional 127,618 homes by 2040, higher than any other English local authority. Greater London’s Tower Hamlets and Barnet boroughs sit in second and third place, with 102,547 and 93,929 new homes required, respectively. Leeds is the next highest English city outside of London, sitting in eighth place with 73,433 homes.

The research also identifies high levels of under-occupancy, with more than 46,800 people aged 66 and over residing in homes larger than necessary (two or more bedrooms unoccupied). If this trend continues, more than 128,800 65+ households are expected to be under-occupied in 2040.

Home to five main universities, Birmingham’s student-age population is projected to grow by 6% to nearly 107,000 people in 2040. Furthermore, its social housing stock is estimated to plummet by an additional 19,170 properties despite 20,625 people being on the city’s housing register in 2023.

Charlotte El Hakiem, planning director at Marrons, said: “As the UK’s second-largest city and the economic heart of the West Midlands, Birmingham faces massive housing pressures.

“It has a large young population that requires affordable housing to help them get onto the property ladder; a significant ageing population, which has led to high levels of under-occupancy; a burgeoning student-age population that requires purpose-built accommodation; and is also suffering from dwindling numbers of social housing stock caused by the Right to Buy scheme, demolitions and a lack of newly-constructed properties.

“Building a range of homes to suit many different needs is not only a priority but a necessity. It creates more choice, aids first-time buyers onto the property ladder, gives expanding families additional space, helps the ageing population downsize and live in homes more suitable for their needs, and adds to the supply of affordable housing.”

In contrast to the remaining local authorities within the West Midlands, Birmingham will need to deliver the highest number of homes by 2040, will have the highest number of under-occupied properties, and is poised to experience the most significant decline in affordable housing.

Coventry is forecast to see the greatest surge in its student-age population (32 per cent), as well as an uptick in its first-time buyer demographic (39 per cent). Shropshire is anticipated to witness the most substantial increase in those aged 66 and over, with a projected rise of 48 per cent by 2040.

Utilising the latest Office for National Statistics Census data (2021) and 2018-based population projections, Marrons has painted a clear picture of England’s housing need in 2040. Supplementing this is data from local authority housing registers, affordable housing stock records and extrapolated housing requirement figures using the government’s standard method.

Dan Usher, economics director at Marrons, who specialises in housing need evidence, said: “England is poised for significant demographic change over the next two decades, bringing forth new challenges and opportunities in the housing sector.

“In examining the data, it becomes evident there is a significant need for general market homes to accommodate the growing population. As well as meeting this basic need, more could be done to provide greater choice and acknowledge the positive impact of specialist and affordable homes as part of a functioning housing market, much of which can be facilitated through market-led development at scale.

“Already, England has been named as the most difficult place to find a home in the developed world, and our ageing population and rising property prices will only exacerbate the problem. If we are going to meet the requirements of the population in 2040, we need to prioritise the needs of future residents and start building the right homes today.”

Pictured (L-R): Dan Usher and Charlotte El Hakiem, of Marrons