Russia-Ukraine conflict likely to result in an eventual draw - security expert

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to be an eventual draw of some kind with legacies and hatreds spanning decades despite the strategic and symbolic impact of Mariupol falling.

That 's according to Jonathan Jackson (pictured), senior teaching fellow in policing and security at Birmingham City University.

The academic, a terrorism and insurgency expert, spoke amid reports that the strategic southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol is likely to fall under Russian control within 36 hours following sustained attacks from the invading forces for almost two months.

He said: “The fall of Mariupol would have significant impact strategically and symbolically. One of Putin 's war aims prior to the conflict appears to have been to ensure control of Ukraine 's Black Sea coast and ports and therefore access to the 'warm water ' shipping and supply routes.

“The symbolism of Mariupol being taken by Russia may have much greater implications. In a war of image and narrative, the eventual capture of the city would be the long-awaited victory that Putin desires and potentially undermine the brave and galvanised resistance shown by Ukraine forces.

“However Ukraine could be able to hold and contain Russian forces to the East and South of the country and has well defended positions on both battlegrounds. The Russian military command and control is certainly improving, but it may be a case of too little, too late to decide the outcome in their favour.

“This conflict may require Western audiences to reimagine what 'winning ' may look like. Rather than a clear winner, the outcome is likely to instead be an eventual draw of some kind, with legacies and hatreds spanning many decades into the future.

“An uncertain future awaits but it will be decided around the diplomatic tables as much as on the ground. Russia does not have a good track record when it comes to managing insurgencies successfully, and the longer the war goes on, the more doubt may emerge in Putin and his leadership.

“In the world of dark charisma, the infallible autocratic leader would find it difficult to explain away a defeat of this magnitude. ”